Polymarket-Marktanalyse
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Zusammenfassung
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Spread‑Analyse
Zurzeit kein Intra‑Market‑Edge (Summe der Best‑Asks ist $1.00 oder höher).
Polymarket-Taker‑Fees variieren je nach Kategorie zwischen 0% und 1.8%. Vor der Größenbestimmung stets auf Polymarket bestätigen.
Ausgänge
| Ausgang | Best Ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2,4 % |
| No | 97,7 % |
Preishistorie
Letzte 7 Tage
Häufig gestellte Fragen
- Worum geht es in diesem Markt?
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? Der Markt löst sich am 30.04.2026 basierend auf den auf Polymarket beschriebenen Regeln.
- Wie funktioniert Intra‑Market‑Arbitrage hier?
- Wenn die Best‑Ask‑Preise für alle Ausgänge zusammen weniger als $1.00 ergeben, können Sie jeden Ausgang kaufen und sind unabhängig davon, welcher Ausgang YES wird, auf eine Auszahlung von $1.00 eingestellt.
- Welche Gebühren fallen an?
- Polymarket‑Taker‑Fees für diese Kategorie liegen typischerweise zwischen 0% und 1.8%. Bestätigen Sie die Live‑Gebühr auf Polymarket, bevor Sie Orders platzieren.