Analisis pasar Polymarket
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
Ringkasan
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Analisis spread
Tidak ada edge intra-market saat ini (jumlah best ask sama dengan atau di atas $1.00).
Biaya taker Polymarket bervariasi menurut kategori antara 0% dan 1.8%. Selalu konfirmasi sebelum menentukan ukuran posisi.
Outcome
| Outcome | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 9,5% |
| No | 90,5% |
Riwayat harga
7 hari terakhir
Pertanyaan yang sering diajukan
- Apa pasar ini?
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Pasar diselesaikan pada 21 Apr 2026 berdasarkan aturan yang dijelaskan di Polymarket.
- Bagaimana arbitrase intra-market bekerja di sini?
- Jika harga best-ask untuk setiap outcome jumlahnya kurang dari $1.00, Anda dapat membeli setiap outcome dan dijamin mendapatkan pembayaran $1.00 terlepas dari mana yang diselesaikan sebagai YES.
- Berapa biayanya?
- Biaya taker Polymarket untuk kategori ini biasanya antara 0% dan 1.8%. Konfirmasi biaya live di Polymarket sebelum menempatkan order.