Analisi dei mercati Polymarket
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
Sommario
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal before Donald Trump visits China. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither a qualifying peace deal nor a Trump visit to China occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for whether a peace deal is achieved will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump visiting China will be official information from government of the United States of America and official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Analisi dello spread
Al momento non ci sono edge intra-market (la somma dei best ask è pari o superiore a $1.00).
Le taker fee di Polymarket variano per categoria tra 0% e 1.8%. Conferma sempre prima di dimensionare la posizione.
Esiti
| Esito | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1,9% |
| No | 98,2% |
Storico dei prezzi
Ultimi 7 giorni
Domande frequenti
- Di cosa tratta questo mercato?
- US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? Il mercato si risolve il 31 mag 2026 in base alle regole descritte su Polymarket.
- Come funziona l'arbitraggio intra-market qui?
- Se i prezzi best-ask di ogni esito sommano a meno di $1.00, puoi comprare ogni esito e ottenere un pagamento di $1.00 indipendentemente da quale risulti YES.
- Quali sono le commissioni?
- Le taker fee di Polymarket per questa categoria sono tipicamente tra 0% e 1.8%. Conferma la fee corrente su Polymarket prima di piazzare ordini.