Analisi dei mercati Polymarket
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Sommario
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Analisi dello spread
Al momento non ci sono edge intra-market (la somma dei best ask è pari o superiore a $1.00).
Le taker fee di Polymarket variano per categoria tra 0% e 1.8%. Conferma sempre prima di dimensionare la posizione.
Esiti
| Esito | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 0,4% |
| No | 99,7% |
Storico dei prezzi
Ultimi 7 giorni
Domande frequenti
- Di cosa tratta questo mercato?
- Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? Il mercato si risolve il 30 apr 2026 in base alle regole descritte su Polymarket.
- Come funziona l'arbitraggio intra-market qui?
- Se i prezzi best-ask di ogni esito sommano a meno di $1.00, puoi comprare ogni esito e ottenere un pagamento di $1.00 indipendentemente da quale risulti YES.
- Quali sono le commissioni?
- Le taker fee di Polymarket per questa categoria sono tipicamente tra 0% e 1.8%. Conferma la fee corrente su Polymarket prima di piazzare ordini.