Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

概要

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

スプレッド分析

アウトカム

価格履歴

過去7日間

よくある質問

このマーケットは何についてですか？

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? このマーケットは Polymarket に記載されたルールに基づき、2026/04/21 に決済されます。

ここでのインターマーケット・アービトラージはどのように機能しますか？

すべてのアウトカムのベストアスク価格の合計が $1.00 未満であれば、各アウトカムを購入して、どれが YES に決まっても $1.00 の支払いを受けることができます。

手数料はどうなっていますか？

このカテゴリの Polymarket のテイカーフィーは通常 0% から 1.8% の範囲です。注文を出す前に Polymarket 上でライブの手数料を確認してください。