Polymarket 마켓 분석
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
요약
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied. A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
스프레드 분석
현재 인트라마켓 에지가 없습니다(최선의 매도 합계가 $1.00 이상입니다).
Polymarket의 테이커 수수료는 카테고리별로 0%에서 1.8% 사이로 다릅니다. 포지션 규모 결정 전 항상 확인하세요.
결과들
| 결과 | 최선의 매도가 |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.4% |
| No | 97.6% |
가격 기록
지난 7일
자주 묻는 질문
- 이 마켓은 무엇에 관한 것인가요?
- Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? 이 마켓은 Polymarket에 설명된 규칙에 따라 2026. 6. 30.에 결제됩니다.
- 인트라마켓 차익거래는 어떻게 작동하나요?
- 모든 결과의 최선 매도 가격 합이 $1.00 미만이면, 각 결과를 매수하여 어떤 결과가 YES로 결제되더라도 $1.00의 지급을 보장받을 수 있습니다.
- 수수료는 어떻게 되나요?
- 이 카테고리의 Polymarket 테이커 수수료는 일반적으로 0%에서 1.8% 사이입니다. 주문하기 전에 Polymarket에서 실시간 수수료를 확인하세요.