Analisis pasaran Polymarket
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ringkasan
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Analisis spread
Tiada edge intra-market sekarang (jumlah best asks adalah sama atau melebihi $1.00).
Yuran taker Polymarket berbeza mengikut kategori antara 0% dan 1.8%. Sentiasa sahkan sebelum menentukan saiz.
Keputusan
| Keputusan | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 0.4% |
| No | 99.7% |
Sejarah harga
7 hari terakhir
Soalan lazim
- Apakah pasaran ini?
- Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? Pasaran akan diselesaikan pada 30 Apr 2026 berdasarkan peraturan yang diterangkan di Polymarket.
- Bagaimana arbitrage intra-market berfungsi di sini?
- Jika harga best-ask untuk setiap keputusan berjumlah kurang daripada $1.00, anda boleh membeli setiap keputusan dan dijamin pembayaran $1.00 tanpa mengira yang mana akan diselesaikan sebagai YES.
- Apakah yuran yang dikenakan?
- Yuran taker Polymarket untuk kategori ini biasanya antara 0% dan 1.8%. Sahkan yuran langsung di Polymarket sebelum meletakkan pesanan.