How the projection math works
The model is intentionally linear, not compounded. Each qualifying trade adds the $7.62 floor to your bankroll. We do not assume reinvestment because Polymarket arbitrage is bankroll-bound by available liquidity per market — at most edges, you cannot just throw more capital at a single trade and double the profit.\n\nSo: trades_per_day × $7.62 = daily_profit. multiply by horizon. add to starting capital. show the curve. The result is a conservative, predictable line that ignores upside (most trades pay more than $7.62) and ignores downside (you will sometimes have slow days). It is the simplest honest model we can ship.
What this projection assumes
- PolyArb's $7.62 minimum guaranteed edge per qualifying trade holds.
- You are subscribed to PolyArb at $99/month for the full horizon.
- You execute every qualifying alert the bot sends, with capital available to fund every leg.
- Polymarket is available to trade from your jurisdiction.
- USDC remains liquid on Polygon and on the Polymarket CLOB.
Why $100 is the realistic starting point
Polymarket arbitrage is not a function of how much capital you have — it is a function of how many qualifying spreads exist per day and how fast you can fire the legs. With $100 you can comfortably take 5 to 10 binary YES/NO arbitrage trades a day at the $7.62 floor and recover the $99/month PolyArb subscription within the first two weeks. From there, every dollar above the subscription is profit you would not have caught on your own.
FAQ
- Is the $7.62 number real?
- Yes. It is the minimum guaranteed edge PolyArb publishes per qualifying trade, on the binary YES/NO and multi-outcome combinatorial arbitrage that the scanner finds. Most trades pay more — we project the floor so you are never disappointed.
- Why not show compounded returns?
- Because Polymarket arbitrage is bankroll-bound by available liquidity at the displayed price. Doubling your stake on the same spread does not double your profit; it eats deeper into the order book and erodes the edge. Linear projection at the $7.62 floor is the honest model.
- What if I get fewer trades per day than I picked?
- Move the trades-per-day slider down. The chart updates instantly. PolyArb's market scanner runs continuously and the volume of qualifying trades depends on news flow, market volatility, and how many Polymarket markets are within the bot's edge threshold on a given day.
- Does this account for Polygon gas?
- PolyArb routes orders through Polymarket's gasless relayer, so you do not pay gas per trade. The $99/month subscription is the only ongoing cost we deduct in the projection.