Phân tích thị trường Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Tóm tắt
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements for an extended ceasefire will qualify, even if a brief period occurs during which there is no formal ceasefire in effect after the expiration of the April 7 ceasefire. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Phân tích spread
Hiện không có edge nội bộ (tổng best asks bằng hoặc cao hơn $1.00).
Phí taker của Polymarket thay đổi theo danh mục, trong khoảng 0% đến 1.8%. Luôn xác nhận trước khi định kích thước lệnh.
Kết quả
| Kết quả | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 52,5% |
| No | 47,5% |
Lịch sử giá
7 ngày qua
Câu hỏi thường gặp
- Thị trường này nói về gì?
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Thị trường được quyết định vào 21 thg 4, 2026 dựa trên các quy tắc được mô tả trên Polymarket.
- Arbitrage nội bộ hoạt động như thế nào ở đây?
- Nếu tổng giá best-ask của mọi kết quả nhỏ hơn $1.00, bạn có thể mua từng kết quả và được đảm bảo thanh toán $1.00 bất kể kết quả nào được quyết định là YES.
- Phí là gì?
- Phí taker của Polymarket cho danh mục này thường nằm trong khoảng 0% đến 1.8%. Xác nhận phí trực tiếp trên Polymarket trước khi đặt lệnh.