Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

摘要

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Spread 分析

结果

价格历史

过去 7 天

常见问题

这个市场是关于什么的？

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? 该市场将于 2026年4月30日 结算，结算规则见 Polymarket 上的说明。

这里的市场内套利是如何运作的？

如果每个结果的最佳卖价之和低于 $1.00，你可以买入所有结果，从而无论哪个结果为 YES，都能获得 $1.00 的支付。

费用是多少？

Polymarket 在该分类的 taker 费用通常在 0% 到 1.8% 之间。下单前请在 Polymarket 上确认实时费用。