Polymarket 市場分析
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
摘要
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
價差分析
目前沒有場內邊際利差（最佳賣價總和等於或高於 $1.00）。
Polymarket 的 taker 費率依類別在 0% 到 1.8% 之間。下單前務必確認。
結果
| 結果 | 最佳賣價 |
|---|---|
| Yes | 36.0% |
| No | 64.0% |
價格歷史
過去 7 天
常見問題
- 這個市場是關於什麼？
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31? 該市場根據 Polymarket 上說明的規則，將於 2026年5月31日 結算。
- 這裡的場內套利如何運作？
- 如果每個結果的最佳賣價總和低於 $1.00，你可以買下每一個結果，無論哪一方最終為 YES，都能保證拿到 $1.00 的給付。
- 費用是多少？
- Polymarket 在此類別的 taker 費通常介於 0% 到 1.8%。下單前請在 Polymarket 上確認即時費率。