Polymarket 市場分析
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
摘要
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal before Donald Trump visits China. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither a qualifying peace deal nor a Trump visit to China occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for whether a peace deal is achieved will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump visiting China will be official information from government of the United States of America and official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
價差分析
目前沒有場內邊際利差（最佳賣價總和等於或高於 $1.00）。
Polymarket 的 taker 費率依類別在 0% 到 1.8% 之間。下單前務必確認。
結果
| 結果 | 最佳賣價 |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.9% |
| No | 98.2% |
價格歷史
過去 7 天
常見問題
- 這個市場是關於什麼？
- US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? 該市場根據 Polymarket 上說明的規則，將於 2026年5月31日 結算。
- 這裡的場內套利如何運作？
- 如果每個結果的最佳賣價總和低於 $1.00，你可以買下每一個結果，無論哪一方最終為 YES，都能保證拿到 $1.00 的給付。
- 費用是多少？
- Polymarket 在此類別的 taker 費通常介於 0% 到 1.8%。下單前請在 Polymarket 上確認即時費率。