Polymarket 市場分析
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
摘要
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”. For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”. If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”. If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
價差分析
目前沒有場內邊際利差(最佳賣價總和等於或高於 $1.00)。
Polymarket 的 taker 費率依類別在 0% 到 1.8% 之間。下單前務必確認。
結果
| 結果 | 最佳賣價 |
|---|---|
| Yes | 96.2% |
| No | 3.9% |
價格歷史
過去 7 天
常見問題
- 這個市場是關於什麼?
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? 該市場根據 Polymarket 上說明的規則,將於 2026年6月30日 結算。
- 這裡的場內套利如何運作?
- 如果每個結果的最佳賣價總和低於 $1.00,你可以買下每一個結果,無論哪一方最終為 YES,都能保證拿到 $1.00 的給付。
- 費用是多少?
- Polymarket 在此類別的 taker 費通常介於 0% 到 1.8%。下單前請在 Polymarket 上確認即時費率。